MI
MEDIFAST INC (MED)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue of $89.4M came in at the high end of guidance ($70–$90M) and roughly in line with consensus ($89.7M*), while diluted EPS of -$0.21 beat consensus (-$0.36*) and landed within guidance (-$0.60 to $0.00) .
- Ongoing headwinds from GLP-1 adoption weighed on active earning OPTAVIA coaches (-35% YoY to 19,500), though revenue per active coach fell just ~2% YoY to $4,585, continuing a trend of moderating declines .
- Gross margin compressed to 69.5% (vs. 75.4% YoY) due to loss of fixed-cost leverage and a reserve tied to reformulation of the Essential line; SG&A fell 36% YoY but rose to 74.1% of revenue on deleverage .
- Management reinforced a strategic pivot from weight loss to “metabolic health,” highlighted new pricing/auto-ship (Premier Plus), Edge leadership development, and plans to launch a next-gen product line leveraging Metabolic Synchronization science in 2026; balance sheet remains strong with $173.5M cash/investments and no debt .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Revenue and EPS at the high end/in-range of guidance; CFO: “third-quarter 2025 results for both revenue and EPS were at the high end of our guidance ranges” .
- Strategic repositioning toward metabolic health, with clinical claims: 98% lean mass retention and 14% visceral fat reduction at 16 weeks; CEO: “transforming…into a leader in promoting metabolic health” .
- Strong liquidity: $173.5M cash/investments and no debt; continued cost actions and right-sizing to support margins going forward .
What Went Wrong
- Active earning coaches declined 35% YoY to 19,500, driving a 36.2% YoY revenue drop; management continues to cite GLP-1-driven client acquisition challenges .
- Gross margin fell 590 bps YoY to 69.5% on fixed-cost deleverage and a reformulation reserve; SG&A as % of revenue rose 20 bps on deleverage despite absolute SG&A down 36% YoY .
- Operating swung to loss (-4.6% margin) vs. +1.5% YoY; net loss was -$2.3M vs. +$1.1M YoY, reflecting volume pressure and deleverage .
Financial Results
Quarterly sequential trajectory
Year-over-year comparison
KPIs
Consensus vs actuals (Q3 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Consensus context: Q4 2025 revenue consensus $71.4M* sits mid-range of guidance .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO Dan Chard: “We’re transforming Medifast from a weight-loss company into a leader in promoting metabolic health… This strategic evolution positions us in a larger, more durable market” .
- CEO Dan Chard: “We are evolving with purpose to become a science-backed, coach-led leader in metabolic health… reducing visceral fat while preserving lean mass” .
- CFO Jim Maloney: “Revenue for the third quarter was $89.4 million… Active earning coach productivity… down just 2% year over year, continuing a trend of moderating declines… Gross profit margin… decreased… attributable to… loss of leverage… and… reserve for the reformulation of the Essential product line” .
- CFO: “We did some actions in October… to right-size the business… We are expecting fourth-quarter revenue to range from $65–$80 million and a loss per share… -$0.70 to -$1.25” .
Q&A Highlights
- Coach training & unified messaging: Leadership retreat in Sundance; cascading training on Metabolic Synchronization; aim to have all coaches trained through year-end .
- Edge program mechanics: Focus on creating/duplicating/multiplying Executive Directors (~$6,000 revenue per ED) to improve rank composition and productivity .
- Margin dynamics & one-time items: ~$1.5M Essential reformulation charge in Q3; fixed-cost deleverage cited; right-sizing actions in October to support future margins .
- Trajectory to growth: Targeted first “green shoot” of revenue per coach growth in Q4 or within six months; historically coach count growth follows 6–9 months after sustained revenue/coach growth .
- GLP-1 and consumer behavior: Despite macro pressures, management sees consumers prioritizing health; program positioned for those on/off GLP-1s with coaching and lifestyle support .
- LifeMD collaboration: Amortization in Q3’24 was last; collaboration continues; investment was sold in Q2’25 .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025: Revenue $89.4M was essentially in line with consensus $89.7M*, while EPS -$0.21 beat consensus -$0.36*; both metrics were at the high end/in range of company guidance * .
- Q4 2025: Revenue guidance $65–$80M brackets consensus $71.4M*. EPS consensus not available; company guided to a quarterly diluted loss per share of -$0.70 to -$1.25 .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: EPS beat alongside in-line revenue suggests cost controls and mix effects amid deleverage; Q4 guide implies continued revenue pressure and a wider EPS loss, likely prompting estimate fine-tuning toward the mid/lower half of the revenue range .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue and EPS at guidance high end/in-range; EPS beat vs consensus highlights disciplined cost management despite deleverage * .
- Coach count decline remains the primary headwind; productivity declines moderating with early stabilization signals, supported by Premier Plus and Edge initiatives .
- Gross margin compression driven by fixed-cost leverage loss and Essential line reformulation reserve; expect near-term pressure with potential improvement as right-sizing actions take hold .
- Strategic pivot to metabolic health supported by clinical claims (98% lean mass retention; 14% visceral fat reduction), positioning MED as complementary to GLP-1 journeys and standalone lifestyle solutions .
- Liquidity and no debt provide flexibility to invest in product innovation (new line expected next year) and digital enhancements to support coach/client engagement .
- Q4 guide ($65–$80M revenue; -$0.70 to -$1.25 diluted loss per share) suggests continued near-term pressure; watch for revenue per coach growth in Q4 as an early stabilization indicator .
- LifeMD investment risks reduced (investment sold Q2); collaboration remains intact, removing amortization drag seen in Q3’24 .
Bolded surprise points for traders:
- EPS beat: -$0.21 vs -$0.36 consensus*; revenue in line (slight miss of ~$0.3M) * *.
- Guidance tightness: Q4 revenue guidance brackets consensus $71.4M*, signaling cautious outlook *.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*